Prediction market odds on Will MetaMask launch a token by when?
$8 684 236 is riding on this question. «by December 31, 2026» leads at 9 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| by December 31, 2026 | 9 % | 329 746 |
| by September 30, 2026 | 0.9 % | 1 017 552 |
| in 2025 | 0 % | 6 182 925 |
| by June 30 | 0 % | 1 154 014 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «by December 31, 2026» leads at 9 %, but the next outcome is only 8 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
4 outcomes are priced on this event, and 87 % of the money sits on the top three. The rest of the list is cheap for a reason: few people are willing to take the other side.
Some $8 684 236 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
If this changes what you plan to do, check the platform's own conditions first — they vary far more than the rules do.
Look at Dexsport