Prediction market odds on Will Base launch a token by when?
$8 007 516 is riding on this question. «by December 31, 2027» leads at 60 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| by December 31, 2027 | 60 % | 42 583 |
| by June 30, 2027 | 42.5 % | 22 835 |
| by December 31, 2026 | 7 % | 747 175 |
| by September 30, 2026 | 0.2 % | 549 868 |
| in 2025 | 0 % | 4 891 817 |
| by June 30, 2026 | 0 % | 1 753 239 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «by December 31, 2027» leads at 60 %, but the next outcome is only 18 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
With 6 outcomes and only 10 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $8 007 516 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quoted from the market rules.
If this changes what you plan to do, check the platform's own conditions first — they vary far more than the rules do.
Look at Dexsport