Prediction market odds on When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
$27 248 821 is riding on this question. «December 31, 2027» leads at 30 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 30.5 % | 9 922 |
| September 30, 2027 | 14 % | 799 |
| June 30, 2027 | 11.5 % | 4 225 |
| March 31, 2027 | 7.5 % | 1 118 |
| December 31, 2026 | 1.7 % | 2 831 235 |
| September 30 | 0 % | 778 900 |
| December 31 | 0 % | 1 555 670 |
| March 31, 2026 | 0 % | 0 |
| June 30, 2026 | 0 % | 22 066 952 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «December 31, 2027» leads at 30 %, but the next outcome is only 16 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
With 9 outcomes and only 0 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $27 248 821 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
When will Bitcoin hit $150k
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
If this changes what you plan to do, check the platform's own conditions first — they vary far more than the rules do.
Look at Dexsport