Prediction market odds on When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
$27 280 603 is riding on this question. «December 31, 2027» leads at 38 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 37.5 % | 10 794 |
| September 30, 2027 | 19 % | 3 277 |
| June 30, 2027 | 15.5 % | 7 162 |
| March 31, 2027 | 7.5 % | 1 254 |
| December 31, 2026 | 2.9 % | 2 856 595 |
| September 30 | 0 % | 778 900 |
| December 31 | 0 % | 1 555 670 |
| March 31, 2026 | 0 % | 0 |
| June 30, 2026 | 0 % | 22 066 952 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «December 31, 2027» leads at 38 %, but the next outcome is only 18 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
With 9 outcomes and only 0 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $27 280 603 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
When will Bitcoin hit $150k
Quoted from the market rules.
Whatever you decide here, deposit only what you can afford to lose and check the withdrawal rules before you fund an account.
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