Prediction market odds on Variational FDV above what level one day after launch?
$2 892 158 is riding on this question. «$200M» leads at 98 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| $200M | 98 % | 73 033 |
| $100M | 97.9 % | 66 361 |
| $300M | 96.2 % | 264 245 |
| $500M | 86 % | 914 249 |
| $800M | 77 % | 420 553 |
| $1B | 66.5 % | 562 892 |
| $2B | 34.9 % | 234 838 |
| $3B | 16.1 % | 111 717 |
| $4B | 7.2 % | 156 905 |
| $5B | 5.6 % | 87 365 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «$200M» leads at 98 %, but the next outcome is only 0 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
With 10 outcomes and only 14 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $2 892 158 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2028-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Quoted from the market rules.
Whatever you decide here, deposit only what you can afford to lose and check the withdrawal rules before you fund an account.
Look at Dexsport