Prediction market odds on Pump.fun airdrop by ....?
$2 777 171 is riding on this question. «December 31, 2026» leads at 22 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 22 % | 182 795 |
| June 30 | 0 % | 52 667 |
| July 31 | 0 % | 1 069 728 |
| July 18 | 0 % | 289 038 |
| August 31 | 0 % | 200 666 |
| September 30 | 0 % | 108 792 |
| December 31 | 0 % | 677 210 |
| March 31 | 0 % | 196 276 |
What these numbers say
The market is not undecided here: «December 31, 2026» is priced at 22 %, and the next outcome is 22 points behind. A price that lopsided usually means the question is close to settled in traders' view — though the money is still on the table.
With 8 outcomes and only 47 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $2 777 171 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This is a market on predicting the recipient of the Pump.fun airdrop.
Quoted from the market rules.
Read this alongside the terms of whichever platform you use — those terms, not this page, decide what happens to your stake.
Look at Dexsport