Prediction market odds on Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion
$3 747 217 is riding on this question. «Buffalo Bills» leads at 16 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 16 % | 23 507 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 16 % | 41 876 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 12.5 % | 159 821 |
| New England Patriots | 9.5 % | 25 998 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9.3 % | 254 937 |
| Houston Texans | 8.8 % | 180 592 |
| Denver Broncos | 7.5 % | 64 724 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5 % | 46 165 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 6.5 % | 24 785 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.5 % | 579 848 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2.1 % | 811 611 |
| New York Jets | 0.5 % | 403 600 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0.5 % | 339 727 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.4 % | 542 481 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.4 % | 105 869 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.4 % | 141 673 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «Buffalo Bills» leads at 16 %, but the next outcome is only 0 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
With 16 outcomes and only 6 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $3 747 217 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-01-25. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 AFC championship game. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 NFL AFC championship per the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2027 NFL AFC championship game is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2027 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from NFL (https://www.nfl.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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