Prediction market odds on Predict.fun FDV above what level one day after launch?
$6 484 978 is riding on this question. «$50M» leads at 84 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| $50M | 84.3 % | 635 163 |
| $100M | 81.5 % | 524 625 |
| $200M | 71 % | 1 132 299 |
| $300M | 61 % | 1 139 162 |
| $400M | 53 % | 823 584 |
| $500M | 46 % | 745 932 |
| $600M | 38.5 % | 335 857 |
| $800M | 32 % | 272 533 |
| $1B | 26.2 % | 521 752 |
| $1.5B | 22.2 % | 120 685 |
| $2B | 17.1 % | 233 386 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «$50M» leads at 84 %, but the next outcome is only 3 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
With 11 outcomes and only 35 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $6 484 978 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2028-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
If this changes what you plan to do, check the platform's own conditions first — they vary far more than the rules do.
Look at Dexsport