Prediction market odds on Predict.fun FDV above what level one day after launch?
$6 597 254 is riding on this question. «$50M» leads at 84 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| $50M | 83.5 % | 645 023 |
| $100M | 83.5 % | 527 681 |
| $200M | 78.5 % | 1 163 678 |
| $300M | 71.5 % | 1 160 452 |
| $400M | 65.5 % | 834 202 |
| $500M | 60.5 % | 758 713 |
| $600M | 46 % | 337 816 |
| $800M | 38.5 % | 279 845 |
| $1B | 32.3 % | 527 521 |
| $1.5B | 28.4 % | 121 463 |
| $2B | 17.5 % | 240 860 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «$50M» leads at 84 %, but the next outcome is only 0 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
With 11 outcomes and only 35 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $6 597 254 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2028-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Quoted from the market rules.
The principle is general. The limits, fees and verification steps are not: they belong to whichever platform you sign up with.
Look at Dexsport