Prediction market odds on Opensea FDV above what level one day after launch?
$6 807 554 is riding on this question. «$100M» leads at 22 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| $100M | 21.9 % | 146 444 |
| $100M | 21.5 % | 306 194 |
| $500M | 19.7 % | 2 283 184 |
| $300M | 19.5 % | 89 157 |
| $1B | 18 % | 2 112 250 |
| $2B | 6.5 % | 549 623 |
| $3B | 5.5 % | 827 404 |
| $5B | 4.5 % | 493 297 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «$100M» leads at 22 %, but the next outcome is only 0 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
With 8 outcomes and only 40 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $6 807 554 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Quoted from the market rules.
Read this alongside the terms of whichever platform you use — those terms, not this page, decide what happens to your stake.
Look at Dexsport