Prediction market odds on NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year
$7 942 448 is riding on this question. «Player» leads at 50 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Player | 50 % | 0 |
| Player B | 50 % | 0 |
| Player C | 50 % | 0 |
| Player D | 50 % | 0 |
| Player E | 50 % | 0 |
| Player F | 50 % | 0 |
| Player G | 50 % | 0 |
| Player H | 50 % | 0 |
| Player I | 50 % | 0 |
| Player J | 50 % | 0 |
| Player K | 50 % | 0 |
| Player L | 50 % | 0 |
| Player M | 50 % | 0 |
| Player N | 50 % | 0 |
| Player O | 50 % | 0 |
| Player P | 50 % | 0 |
| Player Q | 50 % | 0 |
| Player R | 50 % | 0 |
| Player S | 50 % | 0 |
| Player T | 50 % | 0 |
| Player U | 50 % | 0 |
| Player V | 50 % | 0 |
| Player W | 50 % | 0 |
| Player X | 50 % | 0 |
| Player Y | 50 % | 0 |
| Player Z | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AA | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AB | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AC | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AD | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AE | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AF | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AG | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AH | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AI | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AJ | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AK | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AL | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AM | 50 % | 0 |
| Player | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AO | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AP | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AQ | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AR | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AS | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AT | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AU | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AV | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AW | 50 % | 0 |
| Player AX | 50 % | 0 |
| another player | 50 % | 0 |
| Caleb Wilson | 23.5 % | 25 603 |
| Cameron Boozer | 22.5 % | 14 051 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 20 % | 18 146 |
| Darryn Peterson | 16.5 % | 24 643 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 4.5 % | 7 987 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 2.8 % | 10 688 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 1.8 % | 6 190 |
| Allen Graves | 1.8 % | 665 778 |
| Labaron Philon Jr. | 1.8 % | 323 469 |
| Aday Mara | 1.1 % | 6 456 |
| Sergio De Larrea | 1.1 % | 6 402 |
| Keaton Wagler | 0.9 % | 6 156 |
| Ebuka Okorie | 0.9 % | 2 612 946 |
| Brayden Burries | 0.6 % | 9 495 |
| Kingston Flemings | 0.4 % | 283 151 |
| Chris Cenac Jr. | 0.4 % | 478 263 |
| Nate Ament | 0.3 % | 5 982 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 0.2 % | 5 557 |
| Bennett Stirtz | 0.2 % | 6 538 |
| Zuby Ejiofor | 0.2 % | 1 069 019 |
| Alex Karaban | 0.2 % | 5 748 |
| Hannes Steinbach | 0.1 % | 1 819 |
| Dailyn Swain | 0.1 % | 3 753 |
| Christian Anderson | 0.1 % | 375 795 |
| Jayden Quaintance | 0.1 % | 67 777 |
| Karim López | 0.1 % | 4 705 |
| Cameron Carr | 0.1 % | 8 139 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. | 0.1 % | 1 810 894 |
| Joshua Jefferson | 0.1 % | 72 103 |
| Koa Peat | 0.1 % | 5 195 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «Player» leads at 50 %, but the next outcome is only 0 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
With 81 outcomes and only 0 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $7 942 448 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-05-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NBA regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NBA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NBA regular season is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from NBA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quoted from the market rules.
This holds regardless of where you place the bet. What changes with the platform is the payout schedule and the paperwork.
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