Prediction market odds on MLS Cup Winner 2026
$20 278 412 is riding on this question. «Vancouver Whitecaps FC» leads at 21 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 20.9 % | 400 123 |
| Inter Miami CF | 17 % | 115 481 |
| Nashville SC | 16.2 % | 338 300 |
| Los Angeles FC | 7.5 % | 53 705 |
| Philadelphia Union | 6 % | 236 396 |
| Chicago Fire FC | 5.8 % | 255 284 |
| St. Louis City SC | 5.7 % | 102 636 |
| Houston Dynamo FC | 4.5 % | 486 710 |
| FC Dallas | 4.5 % | 100 082 |
| New England Revolution | 3.2 % | 68 349 |
| Charlotte FC | 3 % | 2 039 734 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1.9 % | 1 177 957 |
| Orlando City SC | 1.8 % | 2 370 642 |
| New York City FC | 1.1 % | 702 383 |
| FC Cincinnati | 0.8 % | 1 590 155 |
| Colorado Rapids | 0.6 % | 143 028 |
| Seattle Sounders FC | 0.6 % | 870 636 |
| Minnesota United FC | 0.5 % | 483 498 |
| Portland Timbers | 0.4 % | 108 221 |
| San Diego FC | 0.4 % | 1 230 925 |
| New York Red Bulls | 0.4 % | 612 325 |
| LA Galaxy | 0.3 % | 30 024 |
| Real Salt Lake | 0.2 % | 2 950 147 |
| D.C. United | 0.1 % | 74 258 |
| Atlanta United FC | 0.1 % | 102 806 |
| Austin FC | 0.1 % | 136 020 |
| Columbus Crew | 0.1 % | 3 208 878 |
| CF Montréal | 0.1 % | 63 136 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 0.1 % | 122 111 |
| Toronto FC | 0.1 % | 104 461 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «Vancouver Whitecaps FC» leads at 21 %, but the next outcome is only 4 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
With 30 outcomes and only 4 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $20 278 412 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quoted from the market rules.
Whatever you decide here, deposit only what you can afford to lose and check the withdrawal rules before you fund an account.
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