Prediction market odds on MLS Cup Winner 2026
$20 118 720 is riding on this question. «Vancouver Whitecaps FC» leads at 18 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 18.2 % | 397 204 |
| Nashville SC | 15.4 % | 329 763 |
| Inter Miami CF | 15 % | 111 712 |
| Los Angeles FC | 7.5 % | 51 934 |
| Chicago Fire FC | 6.6 % | 253 740 |
| Houston Dynamo FC | 4.9 % | 485 334 |
| FC Dallas | 4.7 % | 98 495 |
| St. Louis City SC | 4 % | 99 092 |
| New England Revolution | 2.8 % | 66 799 |
| Philadelphia Union | 2.8 % | 232 781 |
| Orlando City SC | 2.5 % | 2 368 502 |
| Charlotte FC | 2.5 % | 2 036 739 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1.9 % | 1 176 824 |
| FC Cincinnati | 1.6 % | 1 587 205 |
| New York City FC | 1.2 % | 701 208 |
| Real Salt Lake | 1.1 % | 2 948 833 |
| New York Red Bulls | 0.9 % | 611 245 |
| Seattle Sounders FC | 0.9 % | 867 947 |
| Colorado Rapids | 0.8 % | 140 891 |
| Minnesota United FC | 0.7 % | 481 885 |
| Portland Timbers | 0.6 % | 107 154 |
| Columbus Crew | 0.5 % | 3 114 003 |
| San Diego FC | 0.5 % | 1 228 768 |
| LA Galaxy | 0.4 % | 25 070 |
| D.C. United | 0.3 % | 72 752 |
| Toronto FC | 0.3 % | 100 767 |
| Atlanta United FC | 0.1 % | 102 806 |
| Austin FC | 0.1 % | 134 020 |
| CF Montréal | 0.1 % | 63 136 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 0.1 % | 122 111 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «Vancouver Whitecaps FC» leads at 18 %, but the next outcome is only 3 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
With 30 outcomes and only 4 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $20 118 720 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2026-12-19. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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