Prediction market odds on MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher
$2 988 305 is riding on this question. «Jacob Misiorowski» leads at 37 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | 36.6 % | 9 481 |
| Dylan Cease | 33.6 % | 2 090 |
| Jesús Luzardo | 13.2 % | 3 032 |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 4.4 % | 2 447 |
| Cam Schlittler | 4.1 % | 1 502 |
| Paul Skenes | 2.3 % | 5 369 |
| Sonny Gray | 1.8 % | 1 617 |
| Logan Webb | 1.6 % | 584 336 |
| Max Fried | 1.5 % | 1 079 |
| Reid Detmers | 0.8 % | 52 145 |
| Tarik Skubal | 0.5 % | 1 844 |
| Kevin Gausman | 0.5 % | 929 757 |
| Carlos Rodón | 0.4 % | 555 863 |
| Logan Gilbert | 0.1 % | 33 932 |
| Garrett Crochet | 0.1 % | 614 |
| Hunter Brown | 0.1 % | 34 049 |
| Freddy Peralta | 0.1 % | 697 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 0.1 % | 549 |
| Bryan Woo | 0.1 % | 495 |
| Zack Wheeler | 0.1 % | 566 |
| Joe Ryan | 0.1 % | 610 |
| Shota Imanaga | 0.1 % | 16 411 |
| Taj Bradley | 0.1 % | 1 096 |
| José Soriano | 0.1 % | 405 |
| Nolan McLean | 0.1 % | 479 |
| Emerson Hancock | 0.1 % | 20 655 |
| Hunter Greene | 0.1 % | 30 014 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 0.1 % | 697 172 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «Jacob Misiorowski» leads at 37 %, but the next outcome is only 3 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
With 28 outcomes and only 0 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $2 988 305 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the most strikeouts among pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records fewer innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records the lower ERA during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:5
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
If this changes what you plan to do, check the platform's own conditions first — they vary far more than the rules do.
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