Prediction market odds on MLB: Home Runs Leader
$3 199 395 is riding on this question. «Kyle Schwarber» leads at 50 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 49.5 % | 51 840 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 47.5 % | 2 730 |
| Matt Olson | 0.9 % | 5 614 |
| Junior Caminero | 0.5 % | 5 874 |
| Hunter Goodman | 0.5 % | 48 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.4 % | 15 117 |
| Ben Rice | 0.2 % | 3 542 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.1 % | 4 680 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 0.1 % | 2 985 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.1 % | 772 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.1 % | 922 |
| Juan Soto | 0.1 % | 649 418 |
| Pete Alonso | 0.1 % | 476 |
| Nick Kurtz | 0.1 % | 1 516 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.1 % | 659 |
| George Springer | 0.1 % | 535 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.1 % | 664 |
| Mike Trout | 0.1 % | 1 749 624 |
| Manny Machado | 0.1 % | 547 |
| James Wood | 0.1 % | 9 509 |
| Munetaka Murakami | 0.1 % | 10 732 |
| Jordan Walker | 0.1 % | 734 |
| Brandon Lowe | 0.1 % | 471 292 |
| Sal Stewart | 0.1 % | 827 |
| CJ Abrams | 0.1 % | 206 030 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.1 % | 1 370 |
| Shea Langeliers | 0.1 % | 1 341 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «Kyle Schwarber» leads at 50 %, but the next outcome is only 2 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
With 27 outcomes and only 2 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $3 199 395 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2026-10-16. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there
Quoted from the market rules.
Take this as background, then check the specifics — minimum stake, withdrawal window, and which documents get asked for.
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