Prediction market odds on MLB: Home Runs Leader
$3 186 321 is riding on this question. «Kyle Schwarber» leads at 85 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 85 % | 43 679 |
| Junior Caminero | 3.5 % | 5 284 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 2.1 % | 14 910 |
| Matt Olson | 0.9 % | 5 408 |
| Ben Rice | 0.2 % | 3 492 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 0.1 % | 2 854 |
| Juan Soto | 0.1 % | 649 298 |
| Munetaka Murakami | 0.1 % | 10 383 |
| Brandon Lowe | 0.1 % | 470 930 |
| CJ Abrams | 0.1 % | 205 910 |
| Mike Trout | 0.1 % | 1 749 624 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.1 % | 4 680 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.1 % | 772 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.1 % | 922 |
| Pete Alonso | 0.1 % | 476 |
| Nick Kurtz | 0.1 % | 1 516 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.1 % | 659 |
| George Springer | 0.1 % | 535 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.1 % | 664 |
| Manny Machado | 0.1 % | 547 |
| James Wood | 0.1 % | 9 509 |
| Jordan Walker | 0.1 % | 734 |
| Sal Stewart | 0.1 % | 827 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.1 % | 1 370 |
| Shea Langeliers | 0.1 % | 1 341 |
What these numbers say
The market is not undecided here: «Kyle Schwarber» is priced at 85 %, and the next outcome is 82 points behind. A price that lopsided usually means the question is close to settled in traders' view — though the money is still on the table.
With 25 outcomes and only 2 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $3 186 321 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2026-09-28. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
If this changes what you plan to do, check the platform's own conditions first — they vary far more than the rules do.
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