Prediction market odds on Metamask FDV above what level one day after launch?
$3 265 643 is riding on this question. «$2B» leads at 7 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| $2B | 7 % | 405 893 |
| $700M | 6.8 % | 1 391 594 |
| $3B | 6.6 % | 333 787 |
| $1B | 6.5 % | 612 897 |
| $4B | 6.5 % | 354 867 |
| $300M | 6.5 % | 85 453 |
| $100M | 5.5 % | 59 926 |
| $500M | 5.5 % | 21 226 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «$2B» leads at 7 %, but the next outcome is only 0 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
8 outcomes are priced on this event, and 65 % of the money sits on the top three. The rest of the list is cheap for a reason: few people are willing to take the other side.
Some $3 265 643 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
If this changes what you plan to do, check the platform's own conditions first — they vary far more than the rules do.
Look at Dexsport