Prediction market odds on Metamask FDV above what level one day after launch?
$3 312 638 is riding on this question. «$100M» leads at 12 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| $100M | 12 % | 64 227 |
| $700M | 7.2 % | 1 392 906 |
| $300M | 6.5 % | 85 521 |
| $1B | 5.5 % | 617 052 |
| $500M | 5.5 % | 21 264 |
| $3B | 5.5 % | 336 104 |
| $2B | 3.1 % | 417 496 |
| $4B | 2.1 % | 378 068 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «$100M» leads at 12 %, but the next outcome is only 5 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
With 8 outcomes and only 47 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $3 312 638 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Quoted from the market rules.
Rules are one half of the picture and terms are the other. Look at what a platform charges before you move any money.
Look at Dexsport