Prediction market odds on MegaETH airdrop by when?
$2 647 256 is riding on this question. «December 31, 2026» leads at 14 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 13.5 % | 10 834 |
| September 30 | 0 % | 4 901 |
| December 31 | 0 % | 406 122 |
| June 30 | 0 % | 1 630 392 |
| January 31 | 0 % | 124 860 |
| February 28 | 0 % | 212 641 |
| February 15 | 0 % | 257 506 |
| March 15 | 0 % | 0 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «December 31, 2026» leads at 14 %, but the next outcome is only 14 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
With 8 outcomes and only 16 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $2 647 256 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
this is a market on MegaETH airdrop
Quoted from the market rules.
If this changes what you plan to do, check the platform's own conditions first — they vary far more than the rules do.
Look at Dexsport