Prediction market odds on LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
$3 902 339 is riding on this question. «Natus Vincere» leads at 100 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Natus Vincere | 100 % | 964 595 |
| Movistar KOI | 100 % | 821 901 |
| Movistar KOI | 100 % | 843 801 |
| Over | 100 % | 11 854 |
| Natus Vincere | 100 % | 4 670 |
| Even | 100 % | 10 |
| Under | 100 % | 264 |
| Over | 100 % | 371 |
| Over | 100 % | 897 |
| Movistar KOI | 100 % | 31 |
| Even | 99.5 % | 10 |
| Under | 99.5 % | 22 |
| Under | 99.5 % | 243 |
| Under | 99.5 % | 10 |
| Under | 99.5 % | 528 |
| Under | 99.5 % | 295 |
| Movistar KOI | 99.5 % | 441 |
| Under | 99.5 % | 30 |
| Over | 99.5 % | 30 |
| Under | 99.5 % | 30 |
| Over | 99.5 % | 10 |
| 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 98.6 % | 15 |
| Natus Vincere | 98.5 % | 54 |
| Under | 98.5 % | 10 |
| Over | 98.5 % | 10 |
| Over | 98.5 % | 30 |
| Under | 98.5 % | 10 |
| Movistar KOI | 97.5 % | 214 |
| Over | 97.5 % | 309 |
| Movistar KOI | 85.5 % | 1 064 698 |
| Under | 77 % | 0 |
| Under | 74.5 % | 10 |
| Even | 74 % | 0 |
| Over | 63.5 % | 0 |
| Movistar KOI | 62.5 % | 22 739 |
| Under | 62 % | 60 879 |
| Movistar KOI | 62 % | 174 991 |
| Under | 58.5 % | 443 |
| 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 57.6 % | 10 |
| Natus Vincere | 51.5 % | 96 |
| Movistar KOI | 51 % | 0 |
| 2: Any Player Quadra Kill | 50 % | 0 |
| 2: Any Player Penta Kill | 50 % | 0 |
| 3: Any Player Quadra Kill | 50 % | 0 |
| 3: Any Player Penta Kill | 50 % | 0 |
| 4: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50 % | 0 |
| 4: Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50 % | 0 |
| 4: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50 % | 0 |
| 4: Any Player Quadra Kill | 50 % | 0 |
| 4: Any Player Penta Kill | 50 % | 0 |
| Odd | 50 % | 0 |
| 5: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50 % | 0 |
| 5: Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50 % | 0 |
| 5: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50 % | 0 |
| 5: Any Player Quadra Kill | 50 % | 0 |
| 5: Any Player Penta Kill | 50 % | 0 |
| Odd | 50 % | 0 |
| 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 43.5 % | 20 |
| 3: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 43 % | 5 |
| 3: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 43 % | 5 |
| 1: Any Player Quadra Kill | 1.5 % | 10 |
| 1: Any Player Penta Kill | 1.5 % | 10 |
| 2: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0.5 % | 10 |
| 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0.1 % | 15 |
| 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0.1 % | 10 |
| 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0.1 % | 10 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «Natus Vincere» leads at 100 %, but the next outcome is only 0 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
66 outcomes are priced on this event, and 66 % of the money sits on the top three. The rest of the list is cheap for a reason: few people are willing to take the other side.
Some $3 902 339 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2026-09-18. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Natus Vincere and Movistar KOI in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Movistar KOI. This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of w
Quoted from the market rules.
This holds regardless of where you place the bet. What changes with the platform is the payout schedule and the paperwork.
Look at Dexsport