Prediction market odds on F1 Constructors' Champion
$28 898 832 is riding on this question. «Mercedes» leads at 96 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | 96.1 % | 1 121 634 |
| Ferrari | 1.3 % | 845 145 |
| McLaren | 0.5 % | 1 856 657 |
| Red Bull Racing | 0.1 % | 1 093 604 |
| Williams | 0 % | 3 809 776 |
| Racing Bulls | 0 % | 3 243 186 |
| Aston Martin | 0 % | 3 305 635 |
| Haas | 0 % | 3 317 453 |
| Audi | 0 % | 3 245 998 |
| Alpine | 0 % | 3 351 054 |
| Cadillac | 0 % | 3 708 690 |
What these numbers say
The market is not undecided here: «Mercedes» is priced at 96 %, and the next outcome is 95 points behind. A price that lopsided usually means the question is close to settled in traders' view — though the money is still on the table.
With 11 outcomes and only 13 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $28 898 832 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-04-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.” If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.
Quoted from the market rules.
The principle is general. The limits, fees and verification steps are not: they belong to whichever platform you sign up with.
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