Prediction market odds on Extended FDV above what level one day after launch?
$3 742 164 is riding on this question. «$150M» leads at 74 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| $150M | 73.5 % | 622 181 |
| $300M | 35.5 % | 1 441 774 |
| $500M | 18 % | 1 108 495 |
| $800M | 8.5 % | 247 404 |
| $1B | 4.3 % | 114 085 |
| $2B | 3.2 % | 114 272 |
| $3B | 1.7 % | 93 954 |
What these numbers say
The market is not undecided here: «$150M» is priced at 74 %, and the next outcome is 38 points behind. A price that lopsided usually means the question is close to settled in traders' view — though the money is still on the table.
7 outcomes are priced on this event, and 85 % of the money sits on the top three. The rest of the list is cheap for a reason: few people are willing to take the other side.
Some $3 742 164 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
If this changes what you plan to do, check the platform's own conditions first — they vary far more than the rules do.
Look at Dexsport