Prediction market odds on Bitcoin all time high by when?
$10 274 366 is riding on this question. «December 31,» leads at 9 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, | 8.7 % | 1 819 287 |
| September 30, | 0.4 % | 1 522 037 |
| March 31, | 0 % | 3 926 505 |
| June 30, | 0 % | 3 006 537 |
What these numbers say
Nothing is settled: «December 31,» leads at 9 %, but the next outcome is only 8 points behind. On a question this close, the order of the top two can change on a single piece of news.
4 outcomes are priced on this event, and 71 % of the money sits on the top three. The rest of the list is cheap for a reason: few people are willing to take the other side.
Some $10 274 366 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Quoted from the market rules.
The principle is general. The limits, fees and verification steps are not: they belong to whichever platform you sign up with.
Look at Dexsport