Prediction market odds on Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
$38 426 717 is riding on this question. «Harry Kane» leads at 58 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 57.9 % | 4 409 754 |
| Lamine Yamal | 22.1 % | 2 615 025 |
| Kylian Mbappé | 8.3 % | 2 541 359 |
| Lionel Messi | 5.2 % | 3 013 126 |
| Rodri | 4.5 % | 2 071 410 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 1.9 % | 1 778 555 |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 0.9 % | 2 619 734 |
| Fabian Ruiz | 0.5 % | 1 364 432 |
| Michael Olise | 0.4 % | 1 932 618 |
| Erling Haaland | 0.2 % | 2 025 584 |
| Jude Bellingham | 0.1 % | 1 482 758 |
| Pau Cubarsi | 0.1 % | 1 129 753 |
| Vinícius Júnior | 0.1 % | 1 070 485 |
| Declan Rice | 0.1 % | 912 685 |
| Vitinha | 0.1 % | 854 145 |
| Achraf Hakimi | 0.1 % | 742 246 |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0.1 % | 712 222 |
| Luis Diaz | 0.1 % | 441 734 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 0.1 % | 493 016 |
| Mohamed Salah | 0 % | 1 058 734 |
| Pedri | 0 % | 886 501 |
| Cole Palmer | 0 % | 681 957 |
| Federico Valverde | 0 % | 448 099 |
| Julian Alvarez | 0 % | 737 173 |
| Desire Doue | 0 % | 743 542 |
| Raphinha | 0 % | 696 112 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | 0 % | 168 279 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 0 % | 474 480 |
| Rodrygo | 0 % | 96 121 |
| Enzo Fernandez | 0 % | 75 071 |
| Bukayo Saka | 0 % | 150 008 |
What these numbers say
The market is not undecided here: «Harry Kane» is priced at 58 %, and the next outcome is 36 points behind. A price that lopsided usually means the question is close to settled in traders' view — though the money is still on the table.
With 31 outcomes and only 25 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $38 426 717 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-01-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Quoted from the market rules.
The principle is general. The limits, fees and verification steps are not: they belong to whichever platform you sign up with.
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