Prediction market odds on 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
$26 376 862 is riding on this question. «Alexander Zverev» leads at 100 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev | 100 % | 2 524 800 |
| Casper Ruud | 0.1 % | 306 358 |
| Jannik Sinner | 0 % | 516 969 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 0 % | 2 578 418 |
| Novak Djokovic | 0 % | 1 395 327 |
| Jack Draper | 0 % | 394 364 |
| Ben Shelton | 0 % | 1 557 486 |
| Taylor Fritz | 0 % | 702 862 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 0 % | 1 074 796 |
| Joao Fonseca | 0 % | 583 459 |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 0 % | 1 044 243 |
| Jakub Mensik | 0 % | 594 618 |
| Alexander Bublik | 0 % | 452 000 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 0 % | 606 294 |
| Holger Rune | 0 % | 204 794 |
| Arthur Fils | 0 % | 688 823 |
| Jiri Lehecka | 0 % | 682 893 |
| Flavio Cobolli | 0 % | 587 375 |
| Matteo Berrettini | 0 % | 639 439 |
| Andrey Rublev | 0 % | 511 458 |
| Frances Tiafoe | 0 % | 1 033 660 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 0 % | 540 938 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 0 % | 950 844 |
| Alex de Minaur | 0 % | 260 737 |
| Learner Tien | 0 % | 523 578 |
| Valentin Vacherot | 0 % | 245 368 |
| Luciano Darderi | 0 % | 358 202 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 0 % | 337 039 |
| Tommy Paul | 0 % | 393 547 |
| Rafael Jodar | 0 % | 254 494 |
| Karen Khachanov | 0 % | 774 381 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 0 % | 253 165 |
| Ugo Humbert | 0 % | 1 000 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 0 % | 292 030 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 0 % | 313 207 |
| Brandon Nakashima | 0 % | 270 947 |
| Alexander Blockx | 0 % | 512 726 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 0 % | 30 265 |
| Zizou Bergs | 0 % | 114 209 |
| Ignacio Buse | 0 % | 100 675 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0 % | 405 948 |
| Nuno Borges | 0 % | 0 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | 0 % | 80 061 |
| Alex Michelsen | 0 % | 466 809 |
| Mariano Navone | 0 % | 164 438 |
| Sebastian Baez | 0 % | 0 |
| Jaume Munar | 0 % | 44 820 |
| Gael Monfils | 0 % | 7 000 |
What these numbers say
The market is not undecided here: «Alexander Zverev» is priced at 100 %, and the next outcome is 100 points behind. A price that lopsided usually means the question is close to settled in traders' view — though the money is still on the table.
With 48 outcomes and only 13 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $26 376 862 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2026-09-13. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quoted from the market rules on polymarket.com.
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