Prediction market odds on F1 Drivers' Champion
$203 252 888 is riding on this question. «Kimi Antonelli» leads at 93 %, which is a price people are paying, not a conclusion anyone has reached.
Outcomes and implied probability
| Outcome | Implied chance | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | 93.2 % | 4 439 873 |
| Lando Norris | 2.9 % | 6 868 768 |
| George Russell | 2.9 % | 2 792 231 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 0.9 % | 5 480 357 |
| Max Verstappen | 0.4 % | 6 202 705 |
| Charles Leclerc | 0.2 % | 5 413 478 |
| Oscar Piastri | 0.1 % | 6 501 608 |
| Isack Hadjar | 0.1 % | 9 378 008 |
| Liam Lawson | 0.1 % | 10 726 111 |
| Fernando Alonso | 0 % | 9 140 323 |
| Lance Stroll | 0 % | 11 739 268 |
| Esteban Ocon | 0 % | 9 515 272 |
| Oliver Bearman | 0 % | 12 897 817 |
| Nico Hülkenberg | 0 % | 8 469 825 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 0 % | 10 925 719 |
| Pierre Gasly | 0 % | 11 510 408 |
| Franco Colapinto | 0 % | 12 229 747 |
| Arvid Lindblad | 0 % | 12 049 429 |
| Alexander Albon | 0 % | 11 874 912 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | 0 % | 11 097 657 |
| Valtteri Bottas | 0 % | 12 202 466 |
| Sergio Pérez | 0 % | 11 796 905 |
What these numbers say
The market is not undecided here: «Kimi Antonelli» is priced at 93 %, and the next outcome is 90 points behind. A price that lopsided usually means the question is close to settled in traders' view — though the money is still on the table.
With 22 outcomes and only 7 % on the top three, this is an open field. Spread money usually means genuine uncertainty rather than indifference.
Some $203 252 888 is committed to this question. Money does not make a market correct, but it does make it slow to move on rumour alone.
Closing date is 2027-04-01. The closer it gets, the more the price reflects information rather than expectation.
The percentage is what traders are willing to pay, nothing more. An outcome at 70 % losing is not the market being wrong — it is the market being right about three cases in ten.
How this market settles
This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
Quoted from the market rules.
Take this as background, then check the specifics — minimum stake, withdrawal window, and which documents get asked for.
Look at Dexsport